1-ROGER FEDERER VS. 25- FERNANDO VERDASCO
I have the feeling that this match is going to be more interesting than it appears on paper. Federer owns a 4-0 head to head record against the Spaniard, with wins on clay and hardcourt.
But it’s not as if the 28-year-old Verdasco has given up on his career, and he can crack his first serves and his left-handed forehand. He does not have Federer’s variety or steely nerves, but he will enjoy playing on a show court.
Verdasco has to go right at Federer, play super aggressive and hope he can cause the Swiss to shank some groundstrokes. However, Federer will be able to dictate with his forehand. He has also been serving with terrific variety over the past two months and is more comfortable at the net. This should be a popcorn match, with the five-time US Open champ coming through in four, tough sets.
16-GILLES SIMON vs. 23-MARDY FISH
Simon gave two Americans a rough time at Roland Garros this year, taking out Ryan Harrison and Brian Baker in tight matches. He is a better hardcourt player than he is a clay court player, so don't think that former world No. 6 will be a pushover for Fish. He’s a smooth player who moves very well, can counterpunch brilliantly and has deceptive power.
But Fish can smell an opportunity here, and while Simon can stay with him on cement, on a fast Ashe Stadium in a night match, Mardy has to be considered the favorite. Fish has a stronger serve, is more competent around the net and can hang with Simon from the backhand side.
Fish has to be careful of getting caught in too many forehand rallies and landing his approach shots short, as well as being too predictable. This should be a very close contest and treat for the late night crowd. It won’t go five, but it will last four long sets in a victory for Fish.
OTHER MEN’S MATCHES OF NOTE:
US teen Jack Sock is showing why so many coaches think he has top-20 material. But Spaniard Nicolas Almagro is a tough customer who serves bigger than he’s given credit for, returns pretty well and is a demon from the back court. Take Almagro in four sets… I’m going to pick Sam Querrey to upset Tomas Berdych, even though I can see this match going ether way. The Czech is more accomplished and the better mover for his size, but Querrey has improved weekly and is overdue to make a second week push in New York. Querrey in five… Andy Murray should have few problems with Feliciano Lopez as he likes to confront net rushers and should be able to exploit the Spaniard’s lack of backcourt prowess in a straight set win… I am very temped to pickJames Blake to upset young Canadian sensation Milos Raonic, but the US veteran is going to have to serve extremely well to avoid being broken. Blake will also have trouble returning Raonic's service bombs, so I just can’t see how he’s going to pull off the win if his foe is playing well. I believe that Raonic will and come through in four… Marin Cilic vs. Kei Nishikori should be a blast to watch, pitting the towering Croatian against the speedy Japanese. Both guys can give the ball a ride and both have quarterfinal hopes. Nishikori is overdue to shine in New York and will win an exhausting five setter.
WOMEN
2-AGNIESKA RADWANSKA VS. 30-JELENA JANKOVIC
This could be a fascinating match if both are on their games because foot speed and cagey play will be at a premium. Jankovic has looked worn down for much of this season, which is no surprise given that she has played every possible time there was an event in 2012. That’s too much for anyone.
“JJ,” who reached the final here in 2008, is one of the tour’s most unique characters, very talkative, outspoken and full of self-love. Radwanska is quieter, honest and seems to be true to herself. Radwanska has more variety and is now a more self-assured player. Both have dynamite backhands, but Radwanska’s forehand and first serve are better. Radwanska also has much more faith when the big points arrive. That’s why she will win in two long sets, in a match of 1,000 facial expressions.
This is a rematch of Serena’s stunning loss at the hands of the mercurial Russian at the 2012 Aussie Open. Serena had injured her ankle prior to that tournament and was not at her best, but Makarova must be given credit, as the lefty took off her gloves and belted the ball from inside the baseline.
But Serena is in much better form now and seems to be at peace. She hasn't played a bad match in two months, is loving competing and has always been very good in revenge matches.
Expect Serena to serve big, rip forehands and try to take control of the center of the court. She has to keep her unforced errors down, as Makarova is very capable of zoning in when she gets into a match. She will, but not for long, and Serena will come through in two tough sets.
OTHER WOMEN’S MATCHES OF NOTE:
Sloane Stephens is nearly ready for prime time, but is she prepared to take out a fairly solid Ana Ivanovic on a major show court? Perhaps, but that that’s not the feeling here. While Stephens can match groundies with the former No. 1, Ivanovic is way overdue to catch fire at a major and make a second week push. She’ll repel the teen in three sets… Andrea Hlavackova, the daughter of Czech beer barons, has improved her singles significantly, but Maria Kirilenko is so dependable now that you can almost lock her into any Round of 16. Take the Russian in straight sets… Angie Kerber did not play very well against Venus Williams in her near three-hour victory over the American, so expect her to shake her nerves and play more aggressively in a straight set win overOlga Govortsova… An in-form Sara Errani is not going to exit this event quietly and will easily dismiss Olga Puchkova… Trying to predict how Dominica Cibulkova will play on any given day is harder than predicting which way the ocean winds will blow. She's capable of hitting through Roberta Vinci, but the Italian has hit her late career stride and will win in three.
By Matt Cronin
Friday, August 31, 2012
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