Roger Federer coasted to an easy victory in his first-round match against Frenchman Benoit Paire, 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 on Tuesday. Fed's second-round foe, Nikolay Davydenko won't fare any better.
He's won the tournament four times, most recently in 2010 when he knocked off Andy Murray.
With that track record, the superb 2012 season that saw him go 71-12 with six singles titles, and his demolition of Paire in the first round; there is no reason to think Fed is primed for an upset.
He is 17-2 against Davydenko in his career. He did drop back-to-back meetings against the Russian in 2009 and 2010, but I'd be shocked to see Davydenko defeat Fed again.
He struggled to defeat Dudi Sela in the first round 3-6, 6-1, 7-5, 6-3, and he's coming off an injury-plagued 2012 (Match Stats).
Davydenko is a battler, but Federer is playing at an elite level. When he plays this way, few men can win a set against him. Davydenko will not be one of those few in this case.
If fans are looking for a match that will truly test Federer, they will have to wait until Round 4, or possibly even the quarterfinals. Federer should breeze through the winner of the Bernard Tomic/Daniel Brands match in the third round.
Once the third-ranked player in the world in 2006, Davydenko's play has taken a nosedive as he's gotten older.
Ranked 40th in the world now, nestled just behind the retired Andy Roddick, Federer should dispose of Davydenko with relative ease.
On most levels, Federer dominating early is to be expected. Federer is the second-best player in the world, according to the current ATP rankings, and is coming off a brilliant 2012 season. He should be able to make his way through the dregs of a major tournament like the Australian Open with relative ease en route to a clash against Andy Murray and/or Novak Djokovic.
Of course, that's expected until you remember that Federer is 31 years old—equal to the age of his "fallen off" counterpart on Thursday.
As most tennis lifers know, being 31 in the sport isn't old—it's geriatric. All-time greats like Pete Sampras never won a Grand Slam championship after the age of 31, and there are a very select few guys who have stayed elite into their mid-30s.
Andre Agassi is the most recent example of a player who excelled late in his career, but he's far more of an exception than a rule. Mathematically speaking, Federer's days of Grand Slam contention are dwindling exponentially with each turn of the calendar year—especially with Djokovic and Murray squarely in their primes.
On the other hand, most learned the hard way last year that Federer isn't going to succumb to his increasing age overnight.
Just when folks had begun writing him off, Federer came back with one of the more impressive campaigns of his career in 2012. He ascended back to the world No. 1 ranking spot for much of the year after winning six tournaments, including his seventh Wimbledon title.
It is arguable, though, that we saw fatigue set in for Federer down the stretch in 2012. He failed to win any of his final four tournaments of the season, including a disappointing ouster at the hands of Tomas Berdych at the U.S. Open.
What's more, only two of Federer's wins last season came after May.
Granted, Federer was still playing well enough to reach the quarterfinals in each event. But there is a fine line between being one of the two or three best players in the world and simply being a very good contender. Federer isn't going to suddenly fall off a cliff and start losing in the first round, so it's always best to look for gradual trends for when father time will start eroding his greatness.
Based on what we saw from Federer in his match against Paire, that erosion won't be happening at the Australian Open—at least early-on. He spun the ball with precision and looked extremely well rested after a relatively long break.
There is still a ton of tournament remaining in Melbourne and we'll get a better barometer as Federer continues into the tournament. Older players tend to wear down and make more unforced errors as a tournament goes on and that's something worth watching for Federer.
Nevertheless, when he's at the peak of his game like he was at points against Paire, it's undeniable that Federer is still one of the best players (if not the best player) in the world.
With some predicting 2013 as the beginning of the Djokovic-Murray era, it seems like Federer is once again getting readying to tell the tennis world that his reign isn't over just yet.
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