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Tuesday, 29 May 2012

RG12 - Why Rafael Nadal cannot be stopped at the French Open

And so it has begun: Rafael Nadal’s quest to win an unprecedented seventh Roland Garros title, which would be one more than the great Bjorn Borg. 

Everyone else’s quest is to somehow beat Nadal in a best-of-five match on clay, a Sisyphusian task of the modern age. 
    
Roger Federer almost did it, holding a match point in the fifth set of the Rome final back in 2006. More often, the 16-time Grand Slam champion has gone out like a lamb against Rafa on clay, including five times (and counting) at the French Open. 

Novak Djokovic, the number-one ranked player in the world and winner of the last three majors, twice beat Rafa on clay last year, but both were in best-of-three outings. They played each other three straight years at Roland Garros, 2006-2008, and Nole, despite always matching up well with Nadal, couldn’t take a set. The knowledge that you have to win not one, not two, but THREE sets against this guy on clay can be paralyzing.

Djokovic may be the best player in the world at the moment, but beating Rafael Nadal at the French Open somehow seems as impossible now as it did back in 2008, when he was almost impossible to beat on every surface. I've wondered this spring if Nadal's era of dominance on clay is over, and it might be. Injuries will become a bigger part of the story every season, and the French Open warm-up tournaments will become less important to him. But when Rafa is fit and focused, as he will always try to be at Roland Garros, he will continue to be very tough to beat for the foreseeable future.

Nadal’s revolutionary mega-spin on the forehand stroke -- that distinctive Joe Frazier uppercut/Indiana Jones whip-snap -- remains unique in the game and is perfectly suited to the red dirt. On top of that, Rafa runs like the wind. There simply isn’t a ball within the lines that he can’t reach.

Nadal blasts winners with the best of them, and he comes in to finish off points, and he serves well. In the end, however, Rafa is Rafa because he cannot be outlasted. For Nadal, a good claycourt rally is metronomic, hypnotic, a kind of religious experience. Time and again over the years, Federer would comfortably trade blows with Nadal for ten, fifteen, twenty strokes and then suddenly shank a shot. Time and again, we would attribute the error to Rafa’s monster forehand spin meeting Federer’s vulnerable one-handed backhand. But usually the problem has been deeper than that -- that is, separate from technique and physics. It comes down to Federer’s annoyance with the situation. Unlike Nadal, he’s not a tennis ascetic. He is not one with the universe while out on the court. He’s constitutionally a doer; he makes things happen, pushes the match toward a conclusion so he can get on with his life. But on clay, facing Nadal’s Zen-like retrieval, he can’t DO anything; he can only hang in there, rinse and repeat, ad infinitum, until gravity loses its elasticity and time hurtles off into the cosmos. Emotionally, he can’t take it.

That’s where Djokovic comes in. With his revamped fitness regime and attitude, he proved last season that he could take it. He falls into the same hypnotic state as Rafa in the midst of an intense rally, where it seems he wouldn't miss the ball even if he closed his eyes. Watching him hit and hit and hit, we suspect that at the end of a match his coach has to slap him back to the same reality the rest of us inhabit.
     
To be sure, we have to give Federer a fighting chance at this tournament. After all, he is a former champion here, and he is the man who ended Djokovic’s six-month winning streak at last year’s event. And yet we all sense that the 30-year-old Old Master is in Paris out of a sense of duty (you just don’t skip a major) and that his thoughts are already flying off to London, where Wimbledon and the Olympics await on his beloved grass. 

So that leaves Djokovic, pursuing his fourth straight major title, as the one to challenge Nadal. Can he do it? Oddly enough, losing twice to Rafa in the last few weeks (on clay at Monte Carlo and Rome) actually might make it easier for him. He knows it won’t be a huge shock to people now if he comes up short against the six-time champion. But that added smidge of relaxation probably won’t be enough. 
    
Because Nadal never lets you relax at Roland Garros. His hypnotic state eventually breaks all other hypnotic states, and once the bubble has burst, reality for his opponent rushes in fast.


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